Idaho Releases 2012-2022 Industry Projections

Industry classification reflects the business activity of a person’s employer or company. Occupational classification reflects the type of job or work that the person does, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Long-term occupational projections for Idaho will appear in another article in the future.

Employment by Major Industry Sector

Idaho jobs are projected to increase 109,000 to 781,000 from 2012 to 2022, according to long-term projections from the Idaho Department of Labor. This 16 percent increase over 10 years is more than double the growth Idaho experienced in the previous decade.

From 2002 to 2012, goods-production industries, excluding agriculture, shed more than 14,000 jobs to fall from 16 percent of the economy to just over 13 percent. Jobs in the service sector filled the gap, increasing from 70 percent to 75 percent of all jobs. Through 2022 goods production should hold its own and increase its share of total jobs fractionally, gaining nearly 18,000 jobs over the decade to exceed 106,000 by 2022. Construction and manufacturing have returned to positive annual growth, but mining is expected to add just over 100 jobs in stark contrast to the more than 900 jobs added during the previous 10 years.

Service sector jobs are anticipated to reach 592,000 by 2022, an increase of almost 86,000. Health care and social assistance, retail trade and professional and business services will lead the sector with double-digit percentage gains.

Construction, manufacturing, federal government and nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers should reverse the declining trend of the previous decade. Construction is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.4 percent – well above the 2.6 percent national growth rate – while federal government, manufacturing and nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers are projected to grow but will remain below 2002 employment levels.

Industries graph 1

Annual Growth Rate, Idaho vs. U.S.

Employment in manufacturing, utilities, information, federal government and agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting is projected nationwide to decline 0.2 percent to 1.6 percent annually over the projection period, but Idaho’s employment in all major industries is projected to increase.

Health care and social assistance, which continued growing throughout the recession, should continue expanding at 2.6 percent a year through 2022.

Industries graph 2

Employment Distribution: 2002, 2012 and Projected 2022, Idaho vs. U.S.

Idaho’s agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting industry is projected to maintain the same 3.3 percent share of total jobs through 2022 as it did from 2002 to 2012 while that sector will shrink nationally. The service sector will continue to dominate jobs nationally at nearly 81 percent and in Idaho at almost 76 percent in 2022.

Industries graph 3

Fastest Growing Industries by Percent Change

Construction is the fastest growing industry with a projected job increase of 40 percent. It was also the industry hit hardest by the recession, being driven back to job levels of the mid-1990s. Health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality and retail trade jobs are all expected to increase more than 20 percent by 2022. These fast-growing industries should make significant contributions to Idaho’s employment growth and overall economy.

Industries table 1

Growing Industries by Net Growth in Employment

With an increase of nearly 22,000 jobs, health care and social assistance is projected to add the most jobs by 2022 with total employment exceeding 104,000.

Industries table 2

Declining Industries by Net Loss in Employment

Through 2022, some industries at the three-digit North American Industry Classification System level will be contracting. Eleven are estimated to lose nearly 1,000 jobs by 2022. Motion picture and sound recording and apparel manufacturing, which grew from 2002 to 2012, will join nine other industries that have been in decline for years.

Industries table 3

Additional Information

Idaho long-term industry and occupational projections provide an overview of the state’s economy and its labor market. They are produced every two years for a 10-year projection timeframe.

This is the first of four reports focusing on 10-year employment and occupational projections spanning from 2012 to 2022. This report examines changes in industry employment levels that are expected and examines the trend of growth or decline. Industry sectors are classified by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) for purposes of consistency and comparability with national and other state projections.

Subsequent reports included in the Idaho 2012-2022 projection series will examine long-term projections by occupation, the educational attainment required by those occupations and finally specific examination of occupations requiring education and knowledge of science, technology, engineering and mathematics, otherwise known as STEM occupations. These subsequent reports will be released throughout the summer. Projections for the distinct regions in Idaho will be available in October.

Appendix

Industries Appendix Table

Craig.Shaul@labor.idaho.gov, research analyst, supervisor
(208) 332-3570, ext. 3201